Tuesday, May 24, 2016

HPQ Earnings Tomorrow - Forecasting IPG Revenues of $5.3 Billion

My Excel 2013 spreadsheet is forecasting $5.3 Billion for Q2, FY16

As a long-time "quant" going back to my undergraduate days at University of Oregon, I have loved taking the opportunity for "retooling" a bit over the last several years, with the latest in statistical theory and tools via the MOOC revolution. My current challenge (the second in a series of three in an "XSeries") is from edX and Delft University of Technology, and titled "Data Analysis: Visualization and Dashboard Design".



The most recent assignment fits just perfectly with tomorrow's HP earnings announcement. Taking the 10 years of quarterly data I have compiled since beginning my second career, I entered IPG (Printing and Imaging) quarterly revenues (in billions), and let Excel 2013 plot a trendline and make a forecast based on a simple linear model. (Compared to undergraduate days, it couldn't be more simple!) 

Before tomorrow's announcement, I wanted to share the model's purely technical, simplistic forecast of a $5.3 revenue quarter for HP Inc.'s printing unit. From eye-balling the data and their seemingly increasing negative momentum, one might judge this forecast to be a bit high. We shall see tomorrow after the market close - stay tuned!

Thursday, April 14, 2016

April 2016 Observations - My Invisible Upgrades

The times have been exciting for me lately, at least in terms of the geek side of my life. For the first time in nearly two-and-a-half years, I have recently upgraded my Apple iPhone, and after reconfiguring offices about a year-and-a-half ago, I have swapped out my main “desktop” PC, which I had already owned for a while but was moved up to the starting rotation in late 2014. While these and similar exchanges seem to always turn out to be more work than initially planned, and usually leave one with a lingering, haunted feeling of “what have I forgotten that will now be lost forever?”, these two nearly completed upgrades have been remarkably smooth, and similar in one particular way - they are both relatively “invisible”.

I realized after a day or two that the “Invisible” in my description has to be traced in part to my sub-conscious recall of a nearly 20-year-old but still well-known technology/industrial design book named “The Invisible Computer”. Its author is Donald A. Norman, a prolific writer and opinion leader in the area of technology product design and user experience. Norman made a brief career stop at HP during the late 90s* when I was fortunate enough to get to know him a bit. While one of his other titles, “The Design of Everyday Things”, is better known and more highly rated, Norman’s ideas on “Invisibility” are surely the subliminal inspiration contributing to the favorable assessment of my recent experiences. A list of Norman’s quotes from the book include, among others, 
“As the technology matures, it becomes less and less relevant. The technology is taken for granted. Now, new customers enter the marketplace, customers who are not captivated by technology, but who instead want reliability, convenience, no fuss or bother, and low cost.” – Chapter 10, The Invisible Computer, Donald A Norman.

Invisible Upgrade #1 – Apple iPhone SE

One old, one new - which is which?
Apple’s “next big thing” announcement in March of this year may have fallen flat in some quarters, but it got my attention. Anticipating the event, now that I am an Apple Watch wearer, I was interested in what might follow a year after its initial launch. But in reality, my curiosity had been piquing more at the media anticipation that Apple would unveil a new, smaller phone, which seemed fascinating if only in the fact that it seemed so contrary to the bigger-screen trend of the past few years.

Sure enough, the SE confirmed that rumor, and photos showed it looked just like the trusty iPhone 5s I have used faithfully since the end of 2013. In 2015, I had actually initiated an upgrade to one of Apple’s larger form-factor phones (6+) but returned it only a day later, not liking the larger size and really the whole feel, and concluding I was still a happy, satisfied member of the iPhone 5s installed base!

The March announcement described the iPhone SE, as smaller than their recent phones but exactly the same size as the 5s. The idea of my favored form factor combined with the latest performance and features, at least the majority of those features, got me to make the move. As Walt Mossberg summarizes (a bit in defense of Apple and the criticism by many of an offering deemed less-than-spectacular), “The idea, of course, was to make it irresistible for the diehards to upgrade.” If that makes me a diehard, so be it – Mossberg hit the nail on the head, and I couldn’t resist. I am now a couple of weeks in, I love it, and the upgrade has been so “invisible” that the new one even fits into my old 5s case!

Invisible Upgrade #2 -- Desktop Replacement Computer

I am not as far along with the upgrade taking place on my desktop, with my previous “Desktop Replacement” computer being replaced by a newer “Desktop Replacement”. This category is characterized by Windows-based computers (at least that’s all I could find when searching), that look like laptops, but are big and powerful enough to replace traditional desktop computers, which are typically in a tower form factor of some sort. Along with the “big and powerful” comes a laptop (in some places even dubbed a “notebook”) that is really more than I would ever want to carry around or travel with.

Old (background), new (foreground) - spitting images?
The old one has worked for me for quite some time, but the strain has been showing, so a good deal on an HP Envy moved me to make the change. Little did I realize when I ordered it, though five years newer than its predecessor, that it would appear physically nearly identical, even when taking into account one of the big features I have been looking forward to having – my first desktop with a touchscreen. Inside, the numbers are all up, in some cases way up, in terms of internal memory, disk storage, and CPU power. But with both running Windows 10 (the old one was upgraded last summer), I look forward to a smooth finish to this upgrade too, and like with the new iPhone, I relish having fewer sluggish moments and enjoying more overall “headroom” leading to increased personal productivity.

Printers
So what does it all mean for printers, the focal point for many of my Observations? Can the industry expect to prosper selling new printers and MFPs to the installed base, focusing on the new hardware’s improved speeds and feeds? When individual and group productivity can be improved, the argument can still be made – I am an example. The more physical similarity, the better. I think it’s a bit like the old saying about what makes a good haircut, something like “the best haircut is one that makes it look like you haven’t had a haircut.”
And that “Desktop Replacement” category I have accepted and taken for granted for so many years? The more I think about it, I realize it’s like a product concept we kicked around at HP years ago, for a new laser printer, the “dot matrix replacement”. It was one of those where we on the internal team all knew what it meant, but as far as providing insight, guidance and inspiration on our next product’s ability to meet customer needs, it was meaningless. More on this topic coming!
Reference
Norman, D. A. (1998). The invisible computer: Why good products can fail, the personal computer is so complex, and information appliances are the solution. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press.
Appendix
*I know that many of my readers are current or former HP employees, as I was for 25 years, leaving in 2005. (With my second career as a blogger/analyst covering the printing and imaging industry, I have covered HP so much that it sometimes seems like I have extended that 25 an additional 10+ years.) So for those readers in mind, I am including this from my research for this post, as an appendix of sorts. My hope is that some will appreciate, as much as I did, Norman’s amazingly frank assessment of his stop as an executive for HP, back when I got to know him a bit. This is straight from his LinkedIn profile, regarding his time with HP (1997-1998).
“Spent a frustrating year with the mission to establish new products in the "information appliance" arena. Such a nice company, but nobody was empowered to do anything. and the one project I got engaged in was a complete disaster: enough to populate a comic novel. I finally quit out of boredom. HP was such a nice company that they wouldn't let me quit: it took me week to convince them to let me go. Today, HP is doing much of what I hoped to do then. But then, it was independent fiefdoms (divisions), none of which had sufficient resources to do new, bold ventures. Today, HP is structured very differently. Then it was a dull, dead company. Today is appears (from the outside), to be vibrant and thriving. (My friends tell me that the old culture still exists, still resentful of the changes. Culture is hard to change -- but HP looks like it might make it.)”


Thursday, April 07, 2016

3D Systems $DDD Reseller delighted with choice of Vyomesh Joshi (VJ) as new CEO




Retired HP ($HPQ) printer chief Vyomesh Joshi was back in the business news this week, being named CEO of 3D Systems ($DDD), a long-time leader in the field of 3D Printing. And at least one 3D Systems reseller could not be happier with the choice.

A little over a year ago, I profiled Intermountain 3D, a Boise-based business (see "February 2015 Observations - HP Alums Take On 3D Printing World") that includes among their portfolio of activities, being a 3D Systems reseller, and actually "the" 3D Systems reseller for the surrounding three-state area. In a bit of an HP "old home week" I asked their CEO for a comment on the new 3D Systems CEO, all of us sharing many years in the printer business at HP.

VJ would be a strong leader for any company, but the high-tech R&D and marketing knowledge he brings to 3D Systems are truly outstanding assets. We can’t imagine a better choice.
-- Lynn Hoffmann, CEO Intermountain 3D, authorized 3D Systems reseller for the intermountain west


After leaving HP in 2012, VJ had been keeping a fairly low profile, but per a Recode interview by Ina Fried (@InaFried) this week, he has been keeping his hands in the tech world. Per Fried's interview/profile, "Joshi said the past four years he has spent advising startups and serving on various boards will come in handy in the new role." Going on the quote VJ about priorities in the new job, "We have to look at our services approach to B2B (business-to-business) and make sure we excel there,” Joshi said. “That’s the work we will be doing.” And that emphasis is no doubt a big reason for Hoffmann's enthusiasm.

Potential Frenemies?
And back to the "old home week" of HP alums, and an interesting twist? One HP veteran who remains with the company is Stephen Nigro, who some would characterize as a VJ protege. In what was far from the first time for Nigro to follow along after a Joshi organizational move, Nigro became HP's overall printer chief in VJ's absence, reporting to now-CEO of HP, Inc., Dion Weisler. But in mid-2015 (before the company split last Fall - see "Revisiting Splitsville"), Nigro was named president of a new division, HP's "3D Printing Business". The industry continues to anticipate HP's very big shoe dropping and for now it seems Joshi and Nigro are poised to be fierce rivals - or will it be as potential partners?

Friday, April 01, 2016

State of the Apple Watch - Inspired by USAToday's Ed Baig - I would buy one again too!

The "gold standard" in marketing research questions for assessing customer satisfaction has long been something along the lines of "would you recommend to a friend". But I think in the case of the year-old Apple Watch, the question (see above) posed by USAToday's Ed Baig is even more relevant. His March 20th "op-ed" asked, "Would I still buy an Apple Watch?".

Buy again or recommend to a friend - key gauges of customer satisfaction
I have been evaluating my answer to that question since then. Actually it's not that hard for me to answer - YES! (And being less than original, my more complete answer follows Baig's - "On balance, yes"!)

While the watch began to ship a year ago, I held out until early June to buy mine. I was using a Pebble smartwatch when the Apple Watch launched, and I referred to it for a time as my "placebo" - knowing it would hold me off from getting the Apple, at least for awhile. That worked for two months!

As an original iPhone customer, having upgraded and used one ever since 2007, and as a life-long wristwatch wearer, I was an easy target for Apple. (Though as a Baby Boomer, probably outside their ideal demographic.)

As far as how I use the Watch, like Baig, I find the Apple Watch Notifications are closest to making my watch a "must have". Informing me of an incoming call or text when grabbing for my phone is not advisable, for either safety (driving) or courtesy (in a meeting or when around other people in a quiet setting).
The "Stand" meter and reminder -
a life-changer for me

My other basics on the watch include Activity, Weather, and Stocks - they probably consume 80%-90% of my "glances", outside of simply checking the time of day. Speaking of "glances" I think it is interesting how little I see or know about "Glances" (with a capital G) or "Complications" - Apple's categories for watch activities or apps. This part of the Watch marketing effort seems to me to been a miss, by a wide margin.

I have tried a large number of apps, and have mostly set them aside after a few days (which truthfully is true for iPhone and iPad apps). My Fidelity app on the watch was cool in giving me visibility to a few retirement accounts, but it's not like I'm going to be day trading on my wrist. The Shazam app remains on my watch, but I have never quite figured out its ability to do its magic (waving the wrist to ID a song) and how it reacts with the iPhone, so I typically don't try. As mentioned, the basic Activity app is a behavior-changer for me (in a good way), but other fitness and health apps I've tried just haven't done it for me.

And then there are the little surprises. When using my iPhone for driving directions, it's pretty cool to get a little "tap on the wrist" when approaching an upcoming turn. And the notification feature for Instagram, with a "like/reply" capability, is great fun. Also, my Siri-activated Timer action, when parking at a downtown meter, has kept me ticket-free for nearly a year.

The "look" of my Apple Watch,
 entering year two
As far as accessorizing, I vowed to never buy an Apple-brand anything for the watch, which was $350 at the time I bought it. But I caved in and bought one of the new canvas bands, for $50, after they were announced last week. The original bright-blue Sport band had outlived its novelty for me, and a third-party leather band purchased on eBay for $20 was acceptable but had wear issues. So I celebrated the Watch's one-year anniversary by splurging for the blue canvas band and a new look.

So, yes, I would buy again, and am happy to have an Apple Watch. As far as recommending to a friend? I must say I am not always as enthusiastic on this front when given the opportunity. So far, with the Apple Watch, I think it really helps to be an enthusiast.



Thursday, March 31, 2016

March Observations - Hunting for Printers on Product Hunt

March 2016 Observations
Hunting for Printers on Product Hunt

 

As an early adopter, at least across many product categories, I enjoy keeping my eyes and ears open to find out what's new in the world. This includes the printing and imaging industry, the focus of my professional interests for the majority of my career, and also encompasses the broader tech world. And just about every day, that means a perusal of Product Hunt is part of my routine. Both fun-loving (see their Glass-wearing mascot above) and comprehensive, it is an increasingly popular website for many, it has grown into being one of my favorites too. Product Hunt offers a daily refresh of a wide-ranging selection of tech innovations, with links to the products/solutions as well as offering readers the opportunity to “upvote” and comment, oftentimes in the form of dialog with the developers.

Scanning Product Hunt

Turtle Mail is a recent Product Hunt find that took me back to similar solutions










 From the site’s FAQ page, the site is described:

“Product Hunt surfaces the best new stuff, everyday. It’s a place for people to share and geek out about their next favorite thing.” 

But unlike the spring blooms of late March and early April, this is not to say printing and printers are busting out all over Product Hunt! The site has evolved quickly since I’ve been a regular, and just last week, "Topics" were introduced, where typical Product Hunt entries (see example above) are grouped under 300 different subject areas. The sample screen shot for Turtle Mail, a “WiFi-connected printer for parents to send messages to kids”, shows it is included under four topics (lower right of the screen shot), “iPhone”, “Email”, “Hardware” and “Wi-Fi”, all included among the 300. The fact that nothing like “Printers” was designated as a topic gives an idea that printing is not necessarily top-of-mind (that’s with the exception of “3D printing”, which is an included topic, as are “Fonts” and “Typography”, in the close-but-no-cigar category.)

The aforementioned Turtle Mail is one example of a recent discovery, found via my daily scan, and it proved stimulating. (A Product Hunt Chrome Extension I have installed means every time I open a new tab in my browser, the day’s Product Hunt entries come up, meaning it’s pretty hard to avoid!) Having been reminded again in the last few years of seeing the world through the eyes of small children (grand-parenthood will do that), I couldn’t help but be intrigued. It also takes me back to Observations and a multi-part series I started in October 2008 (see “Observations: Sharp-Eyed Hard-Copy Marketers Help the Aging”) highlighting two products where hard copy served as the communications medium with the oldest, rather than the youngest family members. Turtle Mail could be worthy of a future dedicated post, as well.

Searching Product Hunt
A search on "printer" brought up a Top Three I can relate to, all in different ways
 A little search effort to go along with daily scanning can still yield interesting quarry, too! A recent search of the Product Hunt database, using keyword “Printer”, comes up with a list, and the first three entries (see screen shot above) all made a connection for me. Printer Pro by Readdle, described as a “printer client” but what I would call an app, is from a suite of products by a company who I have followed and written about for some time now. Surprisingly, they never seem to have made it into these “Observations” pages, but I covered their printing and scanning apps during my days writing for Lyra Research and Photizo Group.

The next one down the list is Printerest. This solution for Pinterest Printing made it to my blog just this week, as the most recent in a long series of “(blank) Printing” posts that go back to “iPhone Printing” in 2007. It’s an interesting Chrome Extension that includes an even more interesting development story, recounted by the developer in a Mediumstory. Definitely discussion fodder for my students next time I teach “Product Design and Development.”

The third brings along a bit of a sad story, and points to a somewhat universal social media issue of handling the presence of the recently passed, both people and products. That number three on the list is Little Printer, chronicled here on many occasions (starting with “February 2012 Observations, Lessons from theLittle Printer That Went Viral”),but pulled from the market in September, 2014. It continues to be listed on Product Hunt, though in its comments section, the shut-down of Little Printer is noted.

Looking ahead


It’s not just the small companies and start-ups who get space in Product Hunt, I should add. Coverage of offerings from industry mainstays is included as well, but on a sporadic basis. As the ideas to be included come in from readers, I feel a responsibility to submit nominations for inclusion, as I see industry innovations pop up. And I will keep doing my Product Hunting, and enjoying it! Just the collection of my thoughts for this post has me thinking ahead to some future profiles. So watch this space!

Monday, March 28, 2016

Pinterest Printing

Product Hunt had fun with alliteration on this one!
 It seems like it has been way too long since my last "(fill in the blank) Printing" post, once a staple of Jim Lyons Observations. Going back to 2007, and beginning with my "iPhone Printing" , I have been around for a wide variety of similar posts, summarizing questions, tests, and news related to new gadgets and platforms, and their abilities to generate hard copy.

After installing the Chrome Extension, I needed a little refresh on Pinterest Boards
So, in the spirit of "way too long", comes this note on printing for that very popular social media platform, Pinterest. I am a long-time Pinterest member, thanks to another social-media-savvy family member, but truth be told, very light on the usage axis.

Clean, fresh graphics guide new users of Printerest
In searching Product Hunt for a coming monthly Observations feature, Pinterest Printing from Printerest (a "say that three times" special) percolated to the top of print- and printer-related innovations, of the type that Product Hunt is famous for. It seemed only natural to give it a whirl. It's a Chrome browser extension, and after refreshing my crowded brain with just what Pinterest does and how it works (e.g. what's a board?), it worked like a charm. The solution is from normally.com, and their story is detailed on Medium, in a piece titled "Let go, and let users. How Pinterest wouldn’t let me build something for their users. So I built it anyway."

Monday, March 21, 2016

State of the Apple Watch - What Woz said

Apple enters "the jewellery [sic] market", but not with the approval of Woz

On this morning of another highly anticipated Apple announcement, speculation surrounds a new, smaller iPhone and a new iPad. And perhaps something having to do with the Apple Watch. For example, see "Apple to unveil iPhone SE, iPad Pro, new Apple Watch tomorrow" - where "new Watch" in the headline actually refers to "latest Apple Watch bands" in the text.

Creating value with watchbands just "does not compute" for Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak, who took on his disillusionment with the company's current approach in a Reddit Ask-me-anything last week. Woz covered lots of ground including the FBI/Apple encryption battle, but summaries (like the UK Wired story, displayed above) tended to focus on his criticism of the company for pursuing product differentiation via aesthetics.
I worry a little bit about - I mean I love my Apple Watch, but - it's taken us into a jewelry market where you're going to buy a watch between $500 or $1100 based on how important you think you are as a person. The only difference is the band in all those watches. Twenty watches from $500 to $1100. The band's the only difference? Well this isn't the company that Apple was originally, or the company that really changed the world a lot.
One can argue with his opinions, and even see him as too "old school" and not really understanding modern economics and marketing. But his thoughts took me back to what could be thought of as the very first "smartwatch", the HP-01, introduced in 1977, about the same time the two Steves were just getting Apple Computer off the ground. Hewlett Packard was still essentially an instrument-dominated company back then, with a leading position in high-end electronic calculators. Taking on the design and production of a "calculator in a wristwatch", as stated by founder Bill Hewlett "because he wanted one", at least as legend has it, met with enthusiastic efforts by the engineering teams, seeking to follow the company's driving culture of making "technology contributions".

When the product launch was in the works, marketing teams in the company recognized that while it was an easy product to explain, it was unique as compared to anything else HP sold. So it needed a sales channel, and the one that made sense consisted of fine jewelry stores. HP built a sales force to take the HP-01, priced at between $450 and $850, to this new-to-HP group of retailers. (The price ranged was based on appearance and the metallic finish used on the several models.)

The product did not succeed in the market, and was long gone before I joined the company in 1981. The folklore surrounding it had not disappeared, however, and the technological feats involving integration and miniaturization, as well as the marketing feats involved in opening a new sales channel.

All that glitters? This gold HP-01 (pictured in an HP Journal article) is clearly the $850 model
So having a great deal of cultural overlap with the original Apple and its co-founder, Steve Wozniak, my view is that the Apple Watch itself is a huge technology contribution already, with more and better anticipated for the future, if not today. As far as all the aesthetics and luxury-goods pricing, I get Woz's drift!