|When I updated my spreadsheet the other day, I started seeing some trends|
The other day, after catching up with filling in my "HP Printer Metrics" spreadsheet (and announced it with a blog post), I started thinking about differences and similarities in the printing and imaging industry over the last seven years, and wondering if there would be any evidence of changed industry dynamics over those years, just from a look at the high-level metrics, and from the industry leader who despite all the moving parts "underneath the hood" puts in a remarkably consistent financial performance, year-in and year-out.
The first quarterly set of figures I included in the spreadsheet was from Quarter One, 2006, and now with the 2013 version in the books (remember HPQ starts their Fiscal Year on November 1st), I took a quick look at the numbers, side-by-side. Quarterly revenues in the seven years fell by about 10%, to just below $6 Billion. And 2013's Q1 showing at $5.9 Billion was the first sub-$6 Billion result since since the $5.7 Billion posted in Q3 of 2009, which was the second sub-$6 Billion quarter in a row, with Q2 2009 matching the most recent quarter at $5.9 Billion. And of the 29 periods in my spreadsheet, Q2 and Q3 of 2009, and Q1 of 2013, are the only three quarters NOT above the $6 Billion benchmark. So with all the optimism after HP's last quarter, one would have to say the business formerly managed under the "IPG" banner is not all that healthy, just looking at the revenues.
Profits actually were also less in Q12013 than those reported in Q12006, but by a very small margin, and less, percentage-wise, than the revenue difference. Unlike revenues, there is not a dramatic "threshold" like the $6 Billion which is so rarely not exceeded, though the $1 Billion mark in profits is a median tide line which seems to divide good and bad quarters. And of course, that there is a strong correlation between overall profits and supplies revenues (r=.66) is not surprising.